🧠 “Index Shake-Up Ahead: S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 & China’s Rising Stars — Who’s In, Who’s Out?” 指数重组前瞻：谁将被纳入或剔除 S&P500、纳斯达克100 与纳斯达克中国指数？
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As we approach the next wave of quarterly and annual rebalancing windows, investors should prepare for a potential reshuffling of major indices — including the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index. Based on updated earnings, market cap trends, and predictive valuation models, here’s a detailed breakdown of the most likely entrants and exits — and where the best upside opportunities lie.
🔷 S&P 500 Index Forecast
Inclusion Criteria:
Companies must be U.S.-based with a market cap typically above $15–20B, positive GAAP earnings (both trailing and latest quarter), strong liquidity, and proper sector representation.
Recent Additions:
Coinbase (COIN) – May 2025
DoorDash (DASH) – March 2025
Notable Candidates for Inclusion:
AppLovin (APP) – $341.64 → $465
The Trade Desk (TTD) – $74.41 → $120
Block (SQ) – $86.96 → $85
Interactive Brokers (IBKR) – $57.98 → $140
Ares Management (ARES) – $127.85 → $135
Cheniere Energy (LNG) – $239.62 → $190
Zoom Video (ZM) – $78.58 → $90
Heico (HEI) – $202.90 → $225
Tradeweb (TW) – $108.35 → $120
Likely Removals and Replacements:
Organon (OGN) → Catalent (CTLT) $53.10 → $70 or Incyte (INCY) $60.25 → $78
Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) → Keysight (KEYS) $142.75 → $165
KeyCorp (KEY) → IBKR or ARES
Bath & Body Works (BBWI) → Burlington (BURL) $216.20 → $250
DXC Technology (DXC) → The Trade Desk (TTD)
Western Digital (WDC) / Seagate (STX) → Block (SQ) or Zoom (ZM)
🔶 Nasdaq-100 Index Forecast
Inclusion Criteria:
Top 100 non-financial Nasdaq-listed companies by float-adjusted market cap. Major changes occur in December, with mid-cycle adjustments triggered by mergers, acquisitions, or eligibility shifts.
Top Inclusion Candidates:
Mobileye (MBLY) – $19.08
Stripe (IPO) – est. $50B
Databricks (IPO) – est. $35–40B
The Trade Desk (TTD) – $74.41 → $120
Potential Exits & Replacements:
Zoom Video (ZM) → MongoDB (MDB) $370.60 → $440 or Stripe
Dollar Tree (DLTR) – Replaced by AppLovin (APP)
Walgreens (WBA) – Replaced by Super Micro Computer (SMCI) $871.45 → $980
Lucid (LCID) – Replaced by Roper Technologies (ROP) $542.80 → $600
Align Tech (ALGN) – Replaced by CDW (CDW) $222.30 → $250
🟢 Nasdaq China Index (Golden Dragon) Forecast
Inclusion Criteria:
Chinese companies primarily operating in mainland China, listed on U.S. exchanges (Nasdaq or NYSE), with sufficient market cap and trading liquidity.
Top Candidates for Inclusion:
Shein (IPO) – est. $60B
Pony.ai – Recently added
CATL (ADR) – est. $150B (if listed)
Miniso (MNSO) – $25.10 → $31
Atour Lifestyle (ATAT) – $20.45 → $28
Likely Removals & Replacements:
Mogu (MOGU) / Ruhnn (RUHN) → Shein / Miniso
TAL Education (TAL) / New Oriental (EDU) → Pony.ai or a new EV/cloud tech IPO
Weibo (WB) – $9.75 → $13 → may be replaced by Bilibili (BILI) $14.80 → $21 or Tencent Music (TME) $10.90 → $15
Noah Holdings (NOAH) – $12.35 → $17 → replacement by Futu (FUTU) $60.10 → $75 or TIGR $5.35 → $8
Sohu (SOHU) / Autohome (ATHM) – $25.75 → $34 – risk of privatization; replaced by ZhongAn or other insurtech entrants
📅 Key Index Review Timelines
S&P 500: Next rebalances in September & December 2025
Nasdaq-100: Main reconstitution in December 2025
Nasdaq China Index: Quarterly reviews, next likely in September 2025
🧠 Final Takeaway
Many of the likely new entrants (like APP, TTD, IBKR, TCOM) are trading at significant discounts to fair value — offering not only potential index-related upside but also core investment merit. Traders and investors alike should be positioning for a wave of quiet but powerful index rotations in H2 2025.
指数重组前瞻：谁将被纳入或剔除 S&P500、纳斯达克100 与纳斯达克中国指数？
随着下一轮季度与年度指数调整临近，投资者应密切关注三大指数——标普500（S&P 500）、**纳斯达克100（Nasdaq-100）与纳斯达克金龙中国指数（Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index）**的潜在调整。本篇分析基于最新财报、市值变动与估值模型，列出未来可能进入或被剔除的公司，并评估其投资机会。
🔷 标普500指数前瞻（S&P 500）
纳入标准：公司必须总部位于美国，市值一般超过150至200亿美元，最新季度与过去四季均需为正的GAAP利润，同时具备良好的流动性与行业代表性。
近期新增：
Coinbase（COIN）– 2025年5月纳入
DoorDash（DASH）– 2025年3月纳入
潜力纳入公司：
AppLovin（APP）：当前股价 $341.64，合理估值 $465
The Trade Desk（TTD）：$74.41 → $120
Block（SQ）：$86.96 → $85
Interactive Brokers（IBKR）：$57.98 → $140
Ares Management（ARES）：$127.85 → $135
Cheniere Energy（LNG）：$239.62 → $190
Zoom（ZM）：$78.58 → $90
Heico（HEI）：$202.90 → $225
Tradeweb（TW）：$108.35 → $120
潜在剔除与替代公司：
Organon（OGN） → 替代候选：Catalent（CTLT，$53.10 → $70）、Incyte（INCY，$60.25 → $78）
Zebra Technologies（ZBRA） → Keysight（KEYS，$142.75 → $165）
KeyCorp（KEY） → IBKR 或 ARES
Bath & Body Works（BBWI） → Burlington（BURL，$216.20 → $250）
DXC Technology（DXC） → The Trade Desk（TTD）
Western Digital（WDC） / Seagate（STX） → 替代者可能为 Block（SQ）或 Zoom（ZM）
🔶 纳斯达克100指数前瞻（Nasdaq-100）
纳入条件：选取纳斯达克交易所中按流通市值排序的前100大非金融公司。每年12月重组，期间如发生并购或条件变动则可能临时调整。
有望纳入者：
Mobileye（MBLY）：自动驾驶科技
Stripe（计划IPO）：金融支付科技
Databricks（计划IPO）：云计算 / AI
The Trade Desk（TTD）：广告科技（$74.41 → $120）
潜在剔除与替代（按行业归类）：
Zoom（ZM） → MongoDB（MDB，$370.60 → $440）或 Stripe
Dollar Tree（DLTR） → 已被 AppLovin（APP，$341.64 → $465）取代
Walgreens（WBA） → 被 Super Micro（SMCI，$871.45 → $980）取代
Lucid（LCID） → Roper Technologies（ROP，$542.80 → $600）
Align Technology（ALGN） → CDW（$222.30 → $250）
🟢 纳斯达克金龙中国指数前瞻（Nasdaq Golden Dragon China）
纳入标准：主要经营在中国大陆、但于美国（Nasdaq/NYSE）上市的中国公司。需具备充足市值与流动性，季度审查。
潜力新增公司：
Shein（IPO） – 估值约 $600亿
Pony.ai – 已新增
宁德时代（CATL，若发行ADR） – 估值高达 $1500亿
Miniso（MNSO）：$25.10 → $31
Atour Lifestyle（ATAT）：$20.45 → $28
可能剔除与替代（按行业归类）：
Mogu（MOGU）/ Ruhnn（RUHN） → Shein / Miniso
TAL / EDU（教育）→ Pony.ai 或云科技、新能源车企业
Weibo（WB）（微博）→ Bilibili（BILI，$14.80 → $21）或 Tencent Music（TME，$10.90 → $15）
Noah（NOAH） → Futu（FUTU，$60.10 → $75）或 Up Fintech（TIGR，$5.35 → $8）
Sohu / Autohome（ATHM） → Autohome（ATHM，$25.75 → $34）可能回归；亦有望由中安在线等保险科技公司取代
📅 重要审查时间表
标普500：下一轮审查在 2025年9月与12月
纳斯达克100：2025年12月年度重组
纳斯达克金龙指数：季度审查，下一次预计在2025年9月
📌 总结与投资启示
多只潜在新增股（如 APP、TTD、IBKR、Trip.com（TCOM））目前估值显著低于合理水平，不仅具备指数纳入驱动，更具备基本面吸引力。建议投资者在2025下半年提前布局这波“静悄悄但力量强大”的指数重排行情。