The Coming Rare Earth Revolution And How To Profit 稀土革命即将来临：如何把握这一波投资机会
Everything You Need to Know About the "Ex-China" Supply Chain 关于“去中国化”稀土供应链的全部要点
The Rare Earths Flashpoint
In a world increasingly defined by supply chain wars and geopolitical chess, few sectors are as strategic—and as fragile—as rare earth elements (REE). These 17 metals, essential to electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, defense systems, and now humanoid robots, are dominated by one player: China.
China controls over 85% of global refined REE supply and more than 90% of permanent magnet production. That dominance is not accidental. It's the product of decades of vertical integration, environmental trade-offs, and strategic investments.
But change is coming.
With China's recent export controls on heavy REEs (Dysprosium, Terbium, etc.) and permanent magnets, Western governments and investors are waking up to the urgent need for a non-China REE supply chain. The scramble is on. The opportunity is now.
Why Rare Earths Matter
Rare earths power the clean energy and high-tech revolutions. From EV motors and wind turbines to precision missiles, drones, and humanoid robotics, these materials are indispensable. For example:
F-35 Fighter Jet: ~920 lbs of REEs
EV (average): 2–3kg of NdFeB permanent magnets
Humanoid robot: Up to 1kg of NdPr and Dy
Yet, over 70% of global rare earth processing and more than 90% of permanent magnets still come from China. Any disruption ripples across the auto, aerospace, energy, and defense sectors globally.
The Emerging ex-China REE Ecosystem: Who Wins?
Governments are responding. The U.S. Department of Defense, EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), and allied initiatives are pouring billions into reshoring and diversifying REE supply. Over 30 serious REE and magnet projects are in motion across Australia, North America, Europe, and parts of Asia.
Stocks to Watch (With Current Price and Valuation)
1. MP Materials (MP)
Price: US$30.03 (July 10)
Fair Value: Wall Street avg $29.5; GF Value $16.52
Owns the Mountain Pass mine in California. Already producing light REEs.
Building a downstream magnet facility in Texas with GM as anchor customer.
Funded by U.S. DoD for HREE separation. Commercial HREE production by 2026.
2. Lynas Rare Earths (LYC.AX)
Price: A$8.28
Fair Value: A$8.13 average; upside range to A$10.50
Only major non-China REE producer. Operates mines in Australia and separation facilities in Malaysia.
Building a heavy REE separation plant in Texas with U.S. DoD. Targeting Dysprosium and Terbium output by 2025.
3. Iluka Resources (ILU.AX)
Building Australia's first fully integrated REE refinery at Eneabba. Commissioning expected by 2026.
Supported by AUD 1.25B of Australian government funding.
Strategic feedstock sourced from mineral sands.
4. Neo Performance Materials (NEO.TO)
Operating REE separation and magnet production facilities in Europe.
Built the first commercial EV-grade magnet facility outside China (Estonia, 2025).
Partner in EU’s CRMA and local feedstock partnerships.
5. Energy Fuels (UUUU.A)
Traditionally a uranium play, now pivoting to REE processing in Utah.
Achieved first NdPr oxide production in 2024.
Secured monazite feedstock from Chemours. Plans to add Dy/Tb by 2028.
6. Aclara Resources (ARA.TO)
Developing ionic clay projects in Brazil and Chile—low-cost HREE production potential.
U.S. Department of Commerce exploring downstream integration.
7. Mkango Resources (MKA.L)
Mining project in Malawi (Songwe Hill) and separation facility in Poland.
Owns HyProMag: REE magnet recycling in UK, Germany, and USA.
Direct recycling may be critical to REE circular economy.
8. USA Rare Earth / Texas Mineral Resources (TMRC.OTC)
Developing Round Top deposit (TX) and Stillwater magnet plant (OK).
One of the few with heavy REE resource in the U.S.
Strong focus on domestic mine-to-magnet strategy.
Hong Kong–Listed Rare Earth Stocks
China Rare Earth Holdings (0769.HK)
Price: HK$0.70
52-week range: HK$0.28 – HK$0.91
Market Cap: HK$1.95 billion
Valuation: ~2.6× P/S, 0.85× P/B; no P/E due to losses
Deep value potential with technical signs of accumulation.
JL Mag Rare-Earth (6680.HK)
Price: HK$19.20 (July 9 close)
52-week range: HK$5.02 – HK$21.75
Market Cap: HK$32.4 billion
Valuation: P/E ~86×; DCF fair value HK$8.90 (over 100% overvalued)
Strong technical momentum, but fundamentals suggest caution.
Key Catalysts
Humanoids Boom: Goldman Sachs projects humanoid deployment to drive NdPr demand >100% by 2045, leading to chronic supply deficits.
EV Disruption: Automakers face REE supply bottlenecks, especially for NdFeB magnets. Ford, Suzuki, and others exploring alternative suppliers.
Defense Imperative: The Pentagon's goal: a full mine-to-magnet chain by 2027. This includes secure Dy/Tb supply for next-gen defense platforms.
Policy Acceleration: The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, EU CRMA, and Japanese METI subsidies are fast-tracking funding and permitting for REE assets.
Risks and Realities
Time-to-Market: New mines can take over a decade from discovery to production.
Permitting Delays: Particularly acute in Western democracies, where environmental and Indigenous concerns delay projects.
Concentration Risks: Even "ex-China" supply chains still rely on Chinese equipment and reagents for separation steps.
Tech Substitution: R&D into FeN, MnBi, and rare-earth-free motors continues, but large-scale replacement remains years away.
How to Invest
Core Holdings: MP, Lynas, Neo — vertically integrated players with operational track records and access to capital.
High Conviction Beta: Iluka, Energy Fuels, Mkango — positioned for growth with government backing and technical momentum.
Emerging Bets: Aclara, USA Rare Earth, Pensana — optionality in geopolitically friendly zones with HREE focus.
Hong Kong Additions: China Rare Earth for value exposure; JL Mag for momentum traders (with caution).
Thematic Exposure: Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETFs (e.g., REMX, VanEck) for diversified access.
Final Thought: The Rare Earths Decade is Here
The 2020s will define who controls the supply chains of EVs, AI robots, missiles, and green tech. Rare earths lie at the heart of this race. For decades, China built a chokehold. Now, the rest of the world is fighting back.
Investors have a front-row seat. Whether you pick winners like MP and Lynas or bet on the dark horses of heavy REE, this space will remain volatile—and filled with opportunity.
The Rare Earth Revolution is coming. Don’t miss it.
稀土的战略引爆点
在日益被供应链战争和地缘政治博弈主导的世界里，没有几个行业像稀土元素（REE）那样既战略又脆弱。这17种金属，是电动车（EV）、风力涡轮机、国防系统，乃至类人机器人等关键技术的核心，而这一领域目前几乎由中国一手掌控。
中国控制着全球85%以上的稀土精炼供应和90%以上的永磁体生产。这种主导地位并非偶然，而是数十年垂直整合、环保妥协和战略投资的结果。
但局势正在改变。
随着中国近期对重稀土（如镝、铽）和永磁体的出口限制出台，西方政府和投资者开始急迫意识到建立“非中国”稀土供应链的必要性。一场全球性的争夺战已然打响，而现在正是布局的时机。
稀土为何如此关键？
稀土元素支撑着清洁能源与高科技革命。从EV电机、风电设备，到精确制导导弹、无人机和类人机器人，这些材料都不可或缺。例如：
F-35隐形战机：约920磅稀土
一辆EV：平均使用2–3公斤钕铁硼（NdFeB）永磁体
类人机器人：多达1公斤的钕镨与镝
目前全球70%以上的稀土加工和90%以上的磁体生产仍集中于中国。一旦供应中断，将波及全球汽车、能源、航天、国防等多个关键行业。
去中国化稀土产业生态：谁是赢家？
各国政府正在加速反应。美国国防部、欧盟《关键原材料法案》（CRMA）以及日本等盟国正在向“去中国化”的稀土供应链投入数十亿美元。全球已有超过30个重要稀土与磁体项目正在澳洲、北美、欧洲和亚洲其他地区加速推进。
值得关注的稀土相关公司（附股价与估值）
1. MP Materials（美股代码：MP）
股价：30.03美元（7月10日）
估值：华尔街平均目标价29.5美元；GF内在价值为16.52美元
拥有加州Mountain Pass矿山，已开始轻稀土生产
正在德州建设下游磁体工厂，GM为主要客户
获美国国防部资助，预计2026年实现重稀土商业产出
2. Lynas Rare Earths（澳股代码：LYC.AX）
股价：8.28澳元
估值：分析师目标均值8.13澳元，最高上看10.50澳元
唯一非中国大型稀土分离商，业务遍布澳洲与马来西亚
与美国国防部合作，在德州建设重稀土分离厂，目标2025年产出镝与铽
3. Iluka Resources（ILU.AX）
正在建设澳洲首个稀土一体化精炼厂（Eneabba项目），预计2026年投产
获澳洲政府12.5亿澳元资助
采用矿砂为原料，强调战略原材料自主可控
4. Neo Performance Materials（NEO.TO）
在欧洲拥有稀土分离与磁体生产设施
2025年在爱沙尼亚建成首个中国境外商用EV级磁体工厂
是欧盟CRMA战略合作方
5. Energy Fuels（UUUU.A）
原为铀企，现转型为美国稀土分离商
2024年开始生产NdPr氧化物；未来计划扩展至镝/铽
主要原料为Chemours提供的独居石
6. Aclara Resources（ARA.TO）
在巴西与智利开发离子型粘土稀土资源（富含重稀土）
美国商务部正与其商谈下游建设合作
7. Mkango Resources（MKA.L）
在马拉维运营Songwe Hill稀土矿，并于波兰设分离厂
拥有HyProMag，专注英国/德国/美国的稀土回收利用
循环经济板块潜力巨大
8. USA Rare Earth / Texas Mineral Resources（TMRC.OTC）
拥有德州Round Top稀土矿与俄克拉荷马磁体厂
美国本土重稀土资源罕见
强调“本土矿-本土磁”完整链条战略
香港稀土概念股
中国稀土控股（0769.HK）
股价：0.70港元
52周波动区间：0.28–0.91港元
市值：约19.5亿港元
估值：市销率2.6倍，市净率0.85倍；亏损中暂无市盈率
技术面呈现累积趋势，属小盘潜在价值股
金力永磁（6680.HK）
股价：19.20港元（7月9日收盘）
52周波动区间：5.02–21.75港元
市值：324亿港元
估值：市盈率约86倍；DCF估算内在价值为8.90港元（高估100%以上）
技术强势，但基本面估值偏高，需留意风险
关键催化剂
类人机器人浪潮：高盛预计到2045年，NdPr需求将增长100%以上，形成结构性短缺
电动车断链风险：多家车厂（福特、铃木等）受到NdFeB磁体短缺影响，正加速寻找替代供应商
国防安全战略：美国五角大楼目标在2027年前实现完整“从矿到磁”供应链，确保军用重稀土自主可控
政策加速器启动：美国《通胀削减法案》、欧盟CRMA、日本METI补贴等正加速资金与审批流程
风险与现实
建设周期长：新稀土矿往往需10年以上方能投入商业生产
审批瓶颈多：西方民主国家面临环保与原住民土地使用等审批障碍
“去中化”不彻底：多数项目在设备与分离工艺上仍依赖中国技术
替代技术尚未成熟：FeN、MnBi、稀土替代电机研发虽在推进，但距离大规模商业化仍远
投资组合建议
核心持仓：MP、Lynas、Neo — 具备生产能力与产业链整合优势
高成长布局：Iluka、Energy Fuels、Mkango — 技术推进快、政策支持强
潜力赌注：Aclara、USA Rare Earth、Pensana — 若时机与政策匹配，具高杠杆弹性
港股配置：0769.HK偏价值型、6680.HK偏趋势交易者
ETF分散布局：REMX、VanEck等稀土/战略金属ETF
结语：稀土的十年已经开启
2020年代将决定谁掌控全球EV、AI机器人、导弹、绿色能源等核心供应链。稀土正是这场博弈的“锚点”。
在中国积累数十年的主导权遭遇挑战之际，全球正加快布局平行供应体系。对于投资者而言，早布局合适项目，将站在这一场产业与地缘重塑浪潮的最前排。
稀土革命已经启程，你准备好了吗？