🔋 The Next Energy & Metals Supercycle: Nuclear SMRs, Uranium, and Precious Metals 下一轮能源与贵金属超级周期：核能 SMR、铀矿与黄金白银
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🔋 Why Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) Are Gaining Momentum
Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) represent a transformative shift in nuclear energy:
Compact, flexible design allows deployment in remote and industrial locations.
Base-load clean energy ideal for decarbonization goals.
Energy security amid rising geopolitical risk.
Support from governments (US, China, UK, ASEAN) and partnerships with tech/data firms.
Southeast Asia Outlook
Indonesia: SMR deployment by 2030; 29 sites under review.
Philippines: U.S. SMR technology selected; Bataan nuclear plant under reassessment.
Thailand, Vietnam: SMRs included in new energy strategies.
Singapore, Malaysia: Feasibility studies and regulatory exploration.
📈 Global SMR & Nuclear Stocks to Watch
Oklo (OKLO) – Pure-play SMR builder with a strong pipeline and high-growth potential (USA).
NuScale Power (SMR) – NRC-approved SMR design with VOYGR plants in development (USA).
BWX Technologies (BWXT) – Diversified into defense, SMR components, and medical isotopes (USA).
Cameco (CCJ) – Leading uranium producer, highly leveraged to uranium supply constraints (Canada).
URA / URNM ETFs – Global exposure to uranium miners.
CGN Power (003816.SZ) – Largest listed nuclear utility in China and Asia.
🪙 Precious Metals: Gold & Silver in the Energy Transition
Macro Drivers
Central banks continue to accumulate gold.
Anticipated rate cuts in H2 2025 support gold and silver.
Silver is driven by demand from solar panels, EVs, and electronics.
Top Stocks to Watch
Agnico Eagle (AEM) – Financially strong gold miner with growing reserves.
Newmont Corp (NEM) – World’s largest gold miner with global operations.
Franco-Nevada (FNV) – Gold royalty company offering low-risk cash flows.
Pan American Silver (PAAS) – Large, diversified silver producer in Latin America.
MAG Silver (MAG) – High-grade silver project in Mexico.
SILJ ETF – Silver juniors ETF, offering high beta exposure to silver.
📊 Current Prices, Fair Value & Technical Entry Levels
Oklo (OKLO)
Current Price: $60.71
Fair Value Target: $71–135 (Seaport)
Technical Levels: Support at $55 and $32; resistance near $135
Entry Zone: Buy near $55; long-term accumulation near $32
NuScale Power (SMR)
Current Price: $43.24
Fair Value: $29–50
Technical Levels: Support at $38–40; resistance at $46–50
Entry Zone: Buy dips to $38–40
BWX Technologies (BWXT)
Current Price: $142.31
Valuation Insight: Strong fundamentals; ARK Invest accumulated near $139–140
Technical Levels: Support at $135–136; resistance above $150
Entry Zone: Buy near $135–140
Cameco (CCJ)
Current Price: $72.34
Fair Value Target: ~$77.3
Technical Levels: Support at $70; resistance at $77–78
Entry Zone: Buy near $70
Newmont (NEM)
Current Price: $58.09
Technical Levels: Support $56; resistance $62
Strategy: Accumulate on dips
Agnico Eagle (AEM)
Current Price: $120.49
Technical Levels: Support $115; resistance $125
Strategy: Add on pullbacks
Franco-Nevada (FNV)
Current Price: $165.20
Technical Levels: Support $160; resistance $175
Strategy: Hold or add on dips
🏛️ Legislation & Policy Catalysts
Nuclear Incentives
Section 45Y Clean Electricity PTC offers up to $0.015/kWh for SMRs starting construction post-2024.
ADVANCE Act (2024) streamlines licensing and cost for advanced nuclear.
2025 Executive Orders require NRC to approve licenses within 18 months; DoE and DoD mandated to procure SMR energy.
State-Level Support
Texas HB 14 sets aside $2B for SMR deployment.
Indiana law allows cost recovery from consumers for early SMR development.
Legal Environment
Multiple lawsuits filed against NRC by startups and states over license delays.
Senate Finance Committee supports nuclear tax credit extensions, with phasedown of renewables subsidies.
🔮 2025–2026 Catalysts & Timeline
Q3 2025: NRC licensing update expected for Oklo.
Q4 2025: Holtec SMR IPO potential; DOE procurement decisions.
H2 2025: Fed rate decisions to influence gold/silver direction.
2026: SMR deployments in Southeast Asia (Indonesia/Philippines) enter final feasibility/contracting phase.
Ongoing: Uranium spot prices, Sprott ETF flows, and national energy policy shifts.
✨ Final Word
This may be the convergence of two secular trends—clean energy and monetary hedging. A portfolio balanced across nuclear infrastructure, uranium, gold, and silver can benefit from both structural demand and cyclical volatility in a world shaped by AI, geopolitics, and climate imperatives.
Stay tuned, stay diversified.
下一轮能源与贵金属超级周期：核能 SMR、铀矿与黄金白银
🔋 小型模块化反应堆（SMR）为何正在加速推进
小型模块化反应堆（SMR）正引领核能领域的变革：
紧凑灵活的设计，适合部署于偏远和工业区域。
基载清洁能源，有助于实现脱碳目标。
能源安全，在地缘政治风险上升背景下尤为关键。
政府支持（美国、中国、英国、东盟）及与科技/数据公司的合作。
东南亚展望
印尼：计划2030年前部署SMR，正在审查29个候选站点。
菲律宾：选择美国SMR技术，重新评估八打雁核电站。
泰国、越南：SMR纳入国家能源战略。
新加坡、马来西亚：进行可行性研究与监管探索。
📈 值得关注的全球SMR与核能股票
Oklo (OKLO) – 专注SMR开发的美国公司，项目管线强劲，增长潜力大。
NuScale Power (SMR) – 获NRC批准的SMR设计，VOYGR项目开发中（美国）。
BWX Technologies (BWXT) – 多元布局于国防、SMR组件与医用同位素领域（美国）。
Cameco (CCJ) – 全球领先的铀矿商，强力受益于供应紧张（加拿大）。
URA / URNM ETF – 提供全球铀矿企业投资敞口。
中广核电力 (003816.SZ) – 中国及亚洲最大上市核电企业。
🪙 能源转型中的贵金属：黄金与白银
宏观驱动因素
各国央行持续增持黄金储备。
2025年下半年可能降息，有利于金银价格。
白银受太阳能、电动车和电子产业需求拉动。
值得关注的贵金属股票
Agnico Eagle (AEM) – 财务稳健，黄金储量持续增长。
Newmont Corp (NEM) – 全球最大黄金生产商，业务遍布全球。
Franco-Nevada (FNV) – 黄金特许权公司，提供低风险现金流。
Pan American Silver (PAAS) – 拉美地区大型多元白银生产商。
MAG Silver (MAG) – 墨西哥高品位白银项目。
SILJ ETF – 白银初级矿商ETF，具有高波动性。
📊 当前价格、合理估值与技术入场点
Oklo (OKLO)
当前价格：$60.71
估值目标：$71–135（Seaport）
技术位：支撑位 $55 和 $32；阻力位 $135
入场建议：$55 附近买入，长期可考虑 $32
NuScale Power (SMR)
当前价格：$43.24
估值区间：$29–50
技术位：支撑 $38–40；阻力 $46–50
入场建议：下探至 $38–40 建仓
BWX Technologies (BWXT)
当前价格：$142.31
投资亮点：基本面稳健；ARK Invest 在 $139–140 区间建仓
技术位：支撑 $135–136；阻力 $150+
入场建议：$135–140 区间买入
Cameco (CCJ)
当前价格：$72.34
估值目标：约 $77.3
技术位：支撑 $70；阻力 $77–78
入场建议：$70 附近买入
Newmont (NEM)
当前价格：$58.09
技术位：支撑 $56；阻力 $62
策略：逢低吸纳
Agnico Eagle (AEM)
当前价格：$120.49
技术位：支撑 $115；阻力 $125
策略：回调时增持
Franco-Nevada (FNV)
当前价格：$165.20
技术位：支撑 $160；阻力 $175
策略：持有或逢低加仓
🏛️ 政策与立法催化剂
核能激励措施
45Y条款：对2024年后动工的SMR提供最高 $0.015/kWh 的清洁电力税收抵免。
《ADVANCE法案》（2024）：简化先进核电项目的许可与成本结构。
2025年行政命令：要求NRC在18个月内审批许可；能源部与国防部需采购SMR电力。
州级政策支持
德州HB 14法案：为SMR部署拨款20亿美元。
印第安纳州法律：允许公用事业将SMR初期成本转嫁给消费者。
法律环境
多家初创公司及州政府因NRC审批延误提起诉讼。
参议院财政委员会支持延长核能税收抵免，同时逐步淘汰新能源补贴。
🔮 2025–2026年关键催化剂与时间线
2025年Q3：Oklo预计将获得NRC许可更新。
2025年Q4：Holtec SMR可能IPO；DOE做出采购决定。
2025年下半年：美联储利率决议或影响金银价格走势。
2026年：东南亚（印尼/菲律宾）SMR项目进入最终签约阶段。
持续关注：铀现货价格、Sprott ETF资金流及国家能源政策变化。
✨ 结语
这是清洁能源与避险资产两大趋势的交汇点。在AI、地缘政治与气候压力交织的世界中，一个涵盖核能基础设施、铀矿、黄金与白银的多元投资组合，有望同时受益于结构性增长与周期性波动。
保持关注，保持多元配置。