Trump’s Trillion-Dollar Trade Playbook: Why China’s Next on the CEO Agenda 特朗普的万亿贸易剧本：中国为何成了CEO议程的下一个重点

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As relations between the United States and China shift from confrontation to cautious cooperation, a high-stakes CEO-level summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is in the works. Mirroring Trump’s recent Middle East tour, where he was joined by tech and financial titans, the China trip will spotlight business diplomacy as a tool to reset economic ties. The summit’s likely agenda spans rare-earth cooperation, semiconductor policy, AI export controls, pharma partnerships, and aerospace realignments.

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🧭 Recalibrating Trade: Context Behind the CEO Summit

Following their June 5 phone call, Trump and Xi agreed to reinitiate technical and commercial talks. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer have led pre-summit engagements. Parallel to these, a curated roster of CEOs—many of whom joined Trump’s recent Riyadh visit—will travel with him to Beijing.

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🔁 Lessons from the Past: Historical Business Diplomacy

Trump and Xi have met before, with major corporate outcomes:

• At Mar-a-Lago in 2017, Apple’s Tim Cook helped avert device tariffs.

• In Osaka in 2019, Boeing and Tesla benefited from groundwork on the Phase One trade deal.

• Under Obama in 2015, U.S. firms secured over $250B in commercial deals at Sunnylands.

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🌏 China’s Pre-Summit Engagement: WEF Tianjin 2025

Recent signals point to China’s interest in biotech, energy, and infrastructure. Key meetings with firms like Cisco, Syensqo, and LG Chem suggest alignment with U.S. corporate priorities in these sectors.

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🧑‍💼 Who’s Likely Going: The Trump CEO Delegation

The delegation is expected to include:

• Elon Musk (Tesla)

• Larry Fink (BlackRock)

• Sam Altman (OpenAI)

• Andy Jassy (Amazon)

• Jensen Huang (Nvidia)

• Lip-Bu Tan (Intel)

• Cristiano Amon (Qualcomm)

• Tim Cook (Apple)

• Kelly Ortberg (Boeing)

• Stephen Schwarzman (Blackstone)

• James Quincey (Coca-Cola)

• Larry Ellison (Oracle) — likely included due to Oracle's prominent role in TikTok’s U.S. data hosting proposal (Project Texas 2.0)

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💊 Biopharma Collaboration: Trade-Proof Ties

Despite tensions, U.S.–China biotech ties are thriving:

• Pfizer partnered with 3SBio on a $1.25B oncology deal

• Regeneron signed an $80M obesity drug agreement with Hansoh

• API supply chain risk remains, but licensing deals remain active

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✈️ Aviation Diplomacy: Boeing vs. Airbus

• Boeing is pushing for resumed 737 MAX deliveries after tariff suspensions.

• Airbus, meanwhile, may ink a massive jet order backed by expanded capacity in Tianjin.

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🖥️ Semiconductors and Policy Friction

• Intel faces scrutiny for China-origin chip content.

• Nvidia is blocked from shipping AI chips and faces regulatory pressure in China.

• Qualcomm still generates 46% of revenue from China and seeks tariff exemptions.

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🍏 Apple’s Delicate Balancing Act

• Apple’s AI deployment via Alibaba is delayed by cybersecurity approvals.

• Tariff hikes added $900M to its cost base.

• Tim Cook will likely push for regulatory clarity and AI clearance.

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✨ Potential Deals on the Horizon

Expected or possible announcements include:

• Tesla and CATL expanding their battery JV

• MP Materials and Shenghe deepening rare-earth cooperation

• Intel and Cadence pursuing licensing relief

• Nvidia gaining limited export flexibility

• Qualcomm securing input tariff waivers

• Pfizer and 3SBio extending drug development ties

• Boeing and Airbus finalizing large aircraft deals

• Apple unlocking AI features in partnership with Alibaba

• Oracle potentially sealing a formal TikTok data agreement

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📈 U.S. Stocks to Watch (Current Price & Fair Value)

• Tesla: $191.39 → FV ~$240

• Amazon: $184.30 → FV ~$210

• Nvidia: $120.91 → FV ~$140

• Intel: $30.89 → FV ~$38

• Qualcomm: $208.79 → FV ~$230

• Apple: $212.49 → FV ~$240

• Oracle: $143.42 → FV ~$165

• Boeing: $184.30 → FV ~$210

• MP Materials: $15.13 → FV ~$21.50

• Freeport-McMoRan: $45.68 → FV ~$55

• BlackRock: $798.24 → FV ~$880

• Blackstone: $122.50 → FV ~$137

• Pfizer: $27.88 → FV ~$37

• Regeneron: $974.01 → FV ~$1080

• Airbus: $38.90 → FV ~$45

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🇨🇳 China/HK-Listed Stocks to Watch (Current Price & Fair Value)

These companies were selected based on their likelihood to participate in or benefit from strategic U.S.–China commercial alignments during or following the summit:

• Pinduoduo: $105.14 → FV ~$182
  A global e-commerce disruptor via Temu, it could partner with U.S. logistics or tech platforms.

• CATL: ¥251 → FV ~¥344–416
  China’s top EV battery maker, likely to deepen ties with Tesla or U.S. auto firms.

• Baidu: $86.13 → FV ~$116
  Baidu’s AI and cloud partnerships make it a potential ally or licensing partner for U.S. tech firms.

• Xiaomi: HK$58.95 → FV ~HK$66–69
  Poised to benefit if U.S. supply chain sanctions are relaxed and potential smart home tech collaborations emerge.

• ZTO Express: $20.43 → FV ~$26
  Logistics partner well-placed for Temu or Shein–US expansions with U.S. fulfillment operators.

• Sunny Optical: HK$66.60 → FV ~HK$83
  As a key supplier to Apple, it stands to benefit if tariffs on optical components ease.

• CMOC: ¥7.59 → FV ~¥9.20
  Major global rare-earths and cobalt supplier; could deepen collaboration with U.S. firms like MP Materials.

• Ganfeng Lithium: ¥41.80 → FV ~¥55
  Lithium supply is core to U.S. EV production strategies; deals with Tesla/CATL could boost value.

• Montage Tech: ¥49.10 → FV ~¥60
  A semiconductor player that could gain from cross-border licensing or chip design collaborations.

• BYD Company Ltd (1211.HK): HK$234.60 → FV ~HK$280
  EV and battery tech leader in China; could collaborate further with Tesla or U.S. energy firms.

• Tencent Holdings (0700.HK): HK$385.20 → FV ~HK$450
  Strategic partner potential with U.S. entertainment or gaming companies; may benefit from licensing or platform integration deals.

Additionally, Chinese banks and property firms may see indirect gains if financial services access or REIT investment frameworks are discussed. Firms like ICBC (1398.HK), China Merchants Bank (3968.HK), and China Overseas Land & Investment (0688.HK) could be worth watching if summit outcomes expand capital market cooperation or commercial real estate investment pathways.

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🧾 Final Word: Diplomacy by Deal Table

This Trump–Xi summit represents a potential inflection point in bilateral business ties. With AI, data sovereignty, semiconductors, and aviation all on the agenda, deal-making could reshape capital flows and regulatory frameworks for years to come. Watch the CEOs, the body language—and the follow-up filings.

标题：特朗普的万亿贸易剧本：中国为何成为CEO议程的下一个重点

随着中美关系从对抗逐步转向谨慎合作，一场由特朗普与习近平主导的高规格CEO峰会正在酝酿之中。这次访问效仿了特朗普最近的中东之行——当时他携多位科技与金融巨头同行，而中国之行则将聚焦以“企业外交”方式重启经贸纽带。会议议题可能涵盖稀土合作、半导体政策、AI出口管控、生物医药合作以及航空产业重构等。

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🧭 贸易再校准：CEO峰会的背景

在6月5日通话后，特朗普与习近平同意重启技术与贸易对话。美国财政部长Scott Bessent与贸易代表Jamieson Greer已牵头展开前期接洽。同时，特朗普也将带领一批CEO——其中多数曾随行前往利雅得——前往北京。

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🔁 历史借鉴：企业外交先例

特朗普与习近平此前也曾在企业家陪同下会晤，取得了诸多商业成果：

• 2017年海湖庄园会晤中，苹果CEO库克成功避免了设备加征关税；

• 2019年大阪G20峰会期间，波音和特斯拉受益于第一阶段贸易协定的初步布局；

• 2015年奥巴马时期，美国企业在加州Sunnylands签署了逾2500亿美元的商业协议。

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🌏 中国的前哨动作：2025年天津达沃斯论坛

中国近期已通过与思科、Syensqo、LG化学等企业的接触，释放出对生物科技、能源和基础设施合作的强烈兴趣，这与美国企业的优先议题高度一致。

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🧑‍💼 谁会随行：特朗普CEO代表团

预计随行人员包括：

• 埃隆·马斯克（特斯拉）

• 拉里·芬克（贝莱德）

• 山姆·奥特曼（OpenAI）

• 安迪·贾西（亚马逊）

• 黄仁勋（英伟达）

• 陈立武（英特尔）

• 安蒙（高通）

• 蒂姆·库克（苹果）

• 凯利·奥特伯格（波音）

• 苏世民（黑石）

• 詹姆斯·昆西（可口可乐）

• 拉里·埃里森（甲骨文）—其可能因Oracle主导TikTok美国数据托管方案（Project Texas 2.0）而随行

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💊 医药合作：不受关税影响的纽带

尽管存在政治摩擦，中美生物医药合作仍保持强劲：

• 辉瑞与三生制药达成12.5亿美元肿瘤合作协议；

• 再生元与恒瑞医药签署8000万美元减肥药合作；

• API供应链虽有地缘政治风险，但许可授权交易持续进行。

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✈️ 航空外交：波音 VS 空客

• 波音推动恢复737 MAX交付，此前因关税暂停；

• 空客则可能借天津扩产之机签下大额订单。

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🖥️ 半导体与政策摩擦

• 英特尔因中国制造组件面临审查；

• 英伟达被禁止向中国出口AI芯片，并受到监管压力；

• 高通46%的营收来自中国，正寻求关税豁免。

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🍏 苹果的微妙平衡术

• 苹果通过阿里部署AI功能的计划，受限于中国网络安全审查；

• 关税上涨导致其成本增加9亿美元；

• 库克预计将在峰会中推动AI落地和监管澄清。

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✨ 潜在交易前瞻

可能在峰会期间达成或宣布的交易包括：

• 特斯拉与宁德时代扩建电池合资项目；

• MP Materials与盛和资源深化稀土供应合作；

• 英特尔与Cadence推动授权豁免；

• 英伟达争取有限的出口放松；

• 高通获取部件关税豁免；

• 辉瑞与三生扩展新药临床合作；

• 波音与空客确认大型订单框架；

• 苹果与阿里推进AI功能合作；

• Oracle有望正式敲定TikTok数据协议。

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📈 美股观察名单（现价 & 合理估值）

• 特斯拉：$323.63 → 合理估值约$240

• 亚马逊：$184.30 → 合理估值约$210

• 英伟达：$120.91 → 合理估值约$140

• 英特尔：$22.69 → 合理估值约$38

• 高通：$208.79 → 合理估值约$230

• 苹果：$201.08 → 合理估值约$240

• 甲骨文：$143.42 → 合理估值约$165

• 波音：$184.30 → 合理估值约$210

• MP Materials：$15.13 → 合理估值约$21.50

• 自由港麦克莫兰：$45.68 → 合理估值约$55

• 贝莱德：$798.24 → 合理估值约$880

• 黑石集团：$122.50 → 合理估值约$137

• 辉瑞：$27.88 → 合理估值约$37

• 再生元：$974.01 → 合理估值约$1080

• 空客：$38.90 → 合理估值约$45

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🇨🇳 中港上市公司观察名单（现价 & 合理估值）

以下公司因有望参与或受益于中美高层战略合作，被列入重点关注：

• 拼多多：$105.14 → 合理估值约$182
  Temu全球扩张潜力大，或与美国物流与平台合作。

• 宁德时代（300750.SZ）：¥251 → 合理估值约¥344–416
  中国电池龙头，有望与特斯拉及美国汽车厂深化合作。

• 百度：$86.13 → 合理估值约$116
  AI与云服务布局，适合与美国科技企业授权合作。

• 小米（1810.HK）：HK$58.95 → 合理估值约HK$66–69
  若供应链制裁缓解，有望与美企开展智能家居协作。

• 中通快递（ZTO）：$20.43 → 合理估值约$26
  Temu与Shein等中国跨境平台的核心物流支撑。

• 舜宇光学（2382.HK）：HK$66.60 → 合理估值约HK$83
  苹果光学模组供应商，若关税放宽则将直接受益。

• 洛阳钼业（603993.SS）：¥7.59 → 合理估值约¥9.20
  全球稀土与钴资源重要供应商，可能与MP合作加深。

• 赣锋锂业（002460.SZ）：¥41.80 → 合理估值约¥55
  锂资源为美电动车战略核心，或通过合作释放估值空间。

• 澜起科技（688008.SS）：¥49.10 → 合理估值约¥60
  国产半导体厂商，跨境IP授权或技术合作可能性大。

• 比亚迪（1211.HK）：HK$234.60 → 合理估值约HK$280
  新能源汽车、电池领域全球领先，有望与美企对接。

• 腾讯控股（0700.HK）：HK$385.20 → 合理估值约HK$450
  在文娱和游戏等领域具备合作潜力，有望签订内容授权协议。

此外，若峰会议题涉及金融服务与REIT机制开放，中国工商银行（1398.HK）、招商银行（3968.HK）与中国海外发展（0688.HK）等金融与地产公司亦可关注。

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🧾 结语：交易即外交

本次特朗普–习近平峰会可能成为重塑中美商业关系的关键转折点。人工智能、数据主权、半导体及航空制造等关键议题，将可能重塑未来数年的资本流向与规则环境。请关注谁将出席、谁签署协议，以及峰会后的股价与公告。